Could the 2025 Launch of Windows 12 Spark an Arm-Powered Step-Change in the PC Market Landscape?

Ahead of IFA 2024, Qualcomm announced the launch of its Snapdragon X Plus 8-core chip, a “budget-friendly” version that adds to its X series stable of chipsets designed for laptops, which includes the premium Snapdragon X Elite and 10-core Snapdragon X Plus. Featuring the custom integrated Arm-based Qualcomm Oryon Central Processing Unit (CPU), the chip also has 45 Terra Operations per Second (TOPS) Neural Processing Unit (NPU) AI processing power that will help push productivity in ultra-portable laptop designs with long battery life. In addition, the Snapdragon X Plus 8-core platform brings Copilot+ and on-device Artificial Intelligence (AI) to users, extending the reach of AI-powered Windows experiences, which is seen as being a launchpad for a new generation in personal computing. It also includes the latest Wi-Fi and 5G connectivity options.

Trading mostly on better battery life, with comparable performance against competitor chips and offering the AI benefits of Copilot+, Qualcomm’s new chip will target the US$700 to US$900 laptop market. By expanding its portfolio to the lower-cost, thinner, and lighter PC sector, the Snapdragon X Plus 8-core was made immediately available on devices from global Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs), including Acer, ASUS, Dell Technologies, Hewlett Packard (HP), Lenovo, and Samsung.

Qualcomm’s latest addition to its stable of chipsets destined for the PC market is nothing new, as the availability of Arm-based silicon for Personal Computers (PCs) has been available for a few years now. Indeed, Qualcomm has targeted the PC market since 2018 with its Snapdragon series of compute platforms, which was followed by the announcement of the Snapdragon X Elite in October 2023, the first in a new family of X series chips specifically designed for portable PCs and notebooks. Qualcomm’s introduction of the Snapdragon X Plus 8 core chip also builds further on the momentum for Copilot+ PCs, a new category of Windows PCs designed for AI that began in May 2024.

Adding the Snapdragon X Plus 8-core to the already available X Plus 10-core pushes the platform to lower price tiers, with the Snapdragon X Elite considered to be Qualcomm’s best-in-class Arm-based processor for Windows laptops. A selection of laptops powered by Snapdragon X Elite and Snapdragon X Plus were announced in May 2024 from OEMs, including Acer, ASUS, Dell, HP, Lenovo, and Samsung, as well as Microsoft with its Surface Pro and Surface laptop. The list of models has since been added to with the launch of the X Plus 8-core, and now includes HONOR, which entered the PC market specifically to use Qualcomm’s chip.

With a growing roster of Arm-based AI chipsets destined for PCs now available from Qualcomm and Apple, which shifted from Intel to Arm-based silicon in 2020 through its M series of processors, the scene has been set for these challengers to upset the status quo and start to capture market share from Intel’s notebook dominance. Bringing about efficiencies and better battery life without sacrificing performance, these Arm-based platforms are capable of competing head on with platforms based on the Intel x86 on Microsoft Windows across many price tiers. However, it is not expected to be an easy fight as they face many challenges to compete effectively, and neither Intel nor AMD has stood still and watched, as they both now also have new platforms featuring NPUs to boost new AI-powered tasks for PCs.

Despite competition between these two camps in the PC market, the sector is currently witnessing a seismic shift to embedded AI chips. It is this availability and choice of chipsets that will help grow the market extensively, unlocking a new set of experiences that run locally on-device. Devices will now be able to run Generative Artificial Intelligence (Gen AI) and enable more AI-based applications, having previously relied on the cloud for AI, which will provide a huge improvement in data security, latency, and privacy, among other benefits. Driven by the introduction of NPUs that can provide access to advanced AI models and the next generation of CoPilot+ experiences on Windows, the PC market is being completely reimagined with AI now firmly front and center of this transformation. The final piece of the AI puzzle will be the development of PC software to run alongside the enhancements in AI hardware, and Windows in particular, but for now, this is not expected to see a major upgrade until the end of 2025.

The push toward embedded AI chips in the PC market is set to spark a noticeable change in attitudes about compute in the sector. However, despite the availability of Arm-based silicon for PCs and Apple being established firmly in the high end, it is not set to displace Intel’s x86 architecture as the dominant player any time soon. For Qualcomm, particularly, it is not going to be an easy market to break into, as there are many challenges it must face when compared with Intel’s current offerings if it is to gain some level of parity and capture market share. In the case of Qualcomm’s Snapdragon X series, it needs to compete effectively in performance benchmarking tests, maximize a similar level of system integration and optimization over Microsoft Windows OS, and break the legacy of the x86 ecosystem that has been maturing for years.

Indeed, Qualcomm faces the prospect of trying to convince Chief Information Officers (CIOs) and Chief Technology Officers (CTOs) to make the decision to purchase Snapdragon-powered laptops, while ditching Intel-based PCs running Windows that they had invested in for years. Moreover, Windows has deep optimization with x86, so it will take a major swing in mindset to make any real substantial transition to Arm, notwithstanding its current limited ecosystem creation in the PC market. However, while Microsoft already has Arm-compatible builds of Windows, there does seem to be a more recent focus on having better Arm support for Windows updates, especially those with strong AI processing power that Windows now needs with the inclusion of Copilot+.

In Qualcomm’s favor, battery life is a key selling point for Snapdragon-based laptops, and it can also trade on the benefits and specific use cases of using Copilot+ that could help boost sales. The provision of lower-priced devices using its recently announced Snapdragon X Plus 8-core chip can also help drive shipments, and showcase improvements in chip performance and the potential for adding 5G to bolster the user experience. Since May 2024, Qualcomm has also built an impressive roster of partnerships with key PC OEMs, but comparatively weak channels to market mean that getting enterprises to adapt to Arm-based PCs will be a tough sell to Information Technology (IT) departments.

Despite the many challenges Arm-based PCs face, 2025 could be a turning point for Qualcomm and the laptop sector, in general. Specifically, the launch of Windows 12, expected around September or October 2025, and the corresponding end of life for Windows 10, has the potential to force a significant hardware refresh for many companies, which is where Qualcomm, and Arm-based silicon, hopes to make its mark and grow share. It is anticipated that Windows 12 will be a major AI-focused release, integrating more AI-specific features and utilizing AI hardware. As this transformative era of AI PCs is ushered in, it is expected that those devices lacking NPUs for local AI processing may trail behind after this significant Windows launch. While it would seem that Qualcomm is making all the right moves to get to the point of being highly competitive in the laptop market by the end of 2025, despite having its hands full combatting the legacy Intel ecosystem and the specter of Apple, rumors suggest that NVIDIA and AMD are both working on Arm CPUs due for launch in 2025, which will bring even greater competition to this sector as it strives to reach critical mass.