Commercial HVAC System Shipments Valued at US$354 Billion in 2030 Driven by Innovations in Cooling, Energy Efficiency, and Sustainability

Building operations and their hardware components are undergoing a wave of digitalization by implementing smart technologies that enable convenience, comfort control, energy efficiency, and operational cost savings. Pressures to comply with sustainability regulations and demand for energy efficiency encourage building owners and engineers to develop optimized Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) strategies to reduce operational costs. According to global technology intelligence firm ABI Research, the current commercial HVAC hardware shipments market is valued at US$161 billion and will grow to US$354 billion in 2030, at an advancing CAGR of 11.9%. This includes packaged systems & rooftop units, conventional systems, Variable Refrigerant Flow Systems (VRF), and multi-split system types.

Traditional HVAC systems have a binary function of ‘On & Off’.  Smart HVAC systems have different modes which condition the air based on multiple factors such as ambient temperature, occupancy, equipment scheduling, and energy consumption. “Smart HVAC systems go beyond basic cooling and heating functions by bridging the connected and unconnected through intelligent climate control (temperature, air quality, and humidity tracking), remote management, proactive, predictive maintenance, and energy optimization. Currently, over 75% of the HVAC systems are hard-wired, as awareness grows over the forecast period by 2030, adoption of wireless connected Smart HVAC systems will reach over 55%,” explains Rithika Thomas, Senior Analyst for Sustainable Technologies at ABI Research.

Building codes and energy utilization regulations globally stress the need for efficient use of HVAC equipment, low-impact/sustainable refrigerant, and optimal set points to reduce energy costs. Energy Performance of Buildings Regulations (EPBD), F-Gas Regulations, the Health and Safety at Work Act 1974, the Control of Legionella Bacteria Regulations 2014, and Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) Regulations are a few edicts shaping the HVAC landscape with a focus on refrigerant type & use, maintenance, environmental impact, and a healthy workplace.

Bosch Group’s recent acquisition of  Johnson Controls Residential and Light Commercial HVAC business has cemented its market share in the HVAC market. Established brands like  Haier Electronics, Honeywell International, LG Electronics, Mitsubishi Electric Corporation, Panasonic, Midea Group, and Samsung Electronics, to name a few, are strengthening their offerings powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI), to cater to high energy efficiency HVAC systems with low-frequency noise, efficient water use, smart control features, and enhanced cooling capabilities. SMEs digitizing building operations and Building Automation System (BAS) providers like ALE, CIM, SensMax, and Sensgreen are partnering with established market players and commercial developers to prototype, manufacture, test, and deploy smart HVAC solutions in commercial buildings.

HVACs contribute between 38% - 70% of a conventional commercial building's energy consumption. “Maximizing energy efficiency in HVAC systems for commercial buildings is crucial to creating energy-efficient, sustainable, and comfortable built environment. Smart HVAC empowers occupants to control the temperature of a space on a granular level from dedicated devices, such as a digital dashboard or phone, to achieve thermal comfort. Upskilling of building operators, technicians, and installers on new digital and smart HVAC capabilities is critical to the success and implementation of connected HVAC systems. The smarter era of HVAC will drive connected living to new heights through comfort, convenience, efficiency, and savings,” Thomas concludes.

These findings are from ABI Research’s HVAC Systems & Hardware in Commercial Buildings market data report. This report is part of the company’s Smart Buildings research service, which includes research, data, and ABI Insights. Market Data spreadsheets comprise deep data, market share analysis, and highly segmented, service-specific forecasts to provide detailed insight into where opportunities lie.