Credential Issuance in Volatile Smart Government ID Market Up a Mere 10 Million Units in 2014

​In 2014 a total of 454 million government ID smart card credentials primarily consisting of driver licenses, healthcare, national ID cards, and passports were issued, resulting in flat YoY growth of 2.4%. Over the past 2 years the government ID market has been slow and sideward moving, reflecting short-term expectations. The market continues to be affected by on-going project delays alongside an overall lack of new projects with no significant new contracts awarded in 2014.

Russia and Japan put on hold their respective smart national ID card projects. France terminated its planned smart driver license until further notice and suspended issuance of a new smart national ID card, challenged by a local human rights group. Brazil also suspended its national ID card program with no resume date announced. The government ID market, for now at least, will continue its reliance upon existing renewals with flat growth likely to continue throughout 2015 and into 2016.

Although the short term future looks bleak, the on-going delays alongside new projects currently outlined to begin issuance in 2016 / 2017 could provide a two-fold boost effect on future market expectations. It is fast becoming likely that new project deployments, including national ID card issuance in Nigeria and Bangladesh, will coincide with those that have been temporarily delayed, a possible scenario market leaders including Gemalto, Giesecke & Devrient, Morpho and Oberthur will closely monitoring.

ABI Research’s Senior Analyst Phil Sealy comments: “From a smart card and secure IC vendor perspective, forecasting project timelines and revenue expectations is getting increasingly difficult. Politics play a major role in the overall success or failure of any project, further exacerbated by the majority of projects which are non-mandated and specific to one country which can ultimately be delayed or even cancelled at any given time. Active vendors require a level of patience and have a clear understanding of localized drivers, barriers and market dynamics in order to better anticipate potential problem projects on the horizon.”

This Government & Healthcare ID Cards market data is part of ABI Research’s Smart Card Technologies Market Research.

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