Despite Regional 200x Funding Differences, Post-Quantum Readiness Won’t Hinder eIDAS Unity

Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) inevitably has an outsized impact on a technology remit covering many trust service use cases, with cryptographically robust signing acting as the market's core. Without this, there is no trust and, therefore, no Electronic Identification and Trust Services (eIDAS). According to ABI Research, a global technology intelligence firm, there are some regional risks to the implementation of this regulation and the extreme differences in Post-Quantum Research and Technology funding – with industry-leading countries such as France providing more than 200x the annual funding of the likes of Bulgaria and the Czech Republic – might be expected to widen the gaps. However, vendor confidence in regulation is strong, and security standards are mandatory for market entry.

“This is a nascent market, and it remains to be seen if early leaders will be able to maintain market dominance or if leapfrogging will change the landscape,” says Digital Security Research Analyst Georgia Cooke. “The key in the PQ market is adaptability, matching technical crypto agility with operational flexibility to keep up with a landscape which is liable to change.”

The challenge for vendors aiming to dominate the PQC market, which ABI Research predicts will surpass US$500 million by 2028, is significant. Providers across the technology stack must adapt to new standards. For example, cryptographic hardware security modules (HSMs), which serve as Qualified Signature Devices (QSCD) in this context, must be optimized to efficiently handle the new algorithms—a key task for companies like Entrust and Utimaco. Meanwhile, smart chips for electronic ID cards and passports must be redesigned to support longer and multiple keys, which is the responsibility of vendors such as NXP Semiconductors, HID Global, and Infineon. Additionally, providers like IDEMIA, IN Groupe, and Veridos are tasked with upgrading, digitizing, and ensuring mobile access to physical credentials, ensuring a smooth transition to PQC readiness.

Vendors can get ahead of the curve by proactively engaging with thought leadership, positioning themselves as the creators of best practices rather than followers. Thales, for example, even co-developed the Falcon algorithm selected by the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) as a post-quantum-resistant digital signature standard.

“This is a complex ecosystem, with evolution needed throughout the stack in the face of new threats, and to achieve the vision of a seamless and unified eIDAS experience, the Post-Quantum Readiness strategy will need to be harmonized and strategic across regions, technical specialties and vendors,” Cooke concludes.

These findings are from ABI Research’s Assessing the Impact of Quantum on eIDAS application analysis report. This report is part of the company’s Citizen Digital Identity and Quantum Safe Technologies research services, which include research, data, and ABI Insights.