eIDAS Regulation Drives Modest Growth but Certain Evolution for EMEA PKI Market

It may seem that electronic Identification, Authentication and Trust Services (eIDAS) should be a natural growth factor for the European Public Key Infrastructure (PKI) market. Still, vendors are not expecting soaring revenues in response to the regulation. Global technology intelligence firm ABI Research anticipates moderate growth to just under US$1.2 billion for PKI in the EMEA region in 2027.

“While the market itself may not explode, it will evolve,” says Georgia Cooke, Research Analyst at ABI Research. “A key factor is usage vs users. The forecast can’t capture the change in end-user dependency as eIDAS and European Digital Identity (EUDI) wallet use cases are implemented. If done right, the number of transactions undertaken, which depend on this trust infrastructure, could multiply dramatically and transform the market. Vendors must adapt from irregular to daily transactions per user if the eIDAS vision is fully embraced.”

The nature of the market is evolving, with regional quirks (both technical and legislative) needing to be balanced with mandated interoperability. Vendors must work adaptively to capture and control market share through this evolution. In some regions, popular and highly used extant solutions may resist any migration. In others, low digitization and a relative lack of verification infrastructure provide a green field prospect. However, this has its own challenges, with a less engaged user base and significant investment required to gain market traction.

This fractious starting point provides the foundation for a multivariate environment as the market evolves, with vendors facing the challenge of further scaling while accommodating everything from customer risk appetites to conventions at the national level. Pragmatics like onboarding requirements will remain somewhat diverse. Market leaders like IN Groupe, HID Global, GlobalSign, Entrust, Veridos, and Utimaco are already well-versed in these logistics and technicalities and are well-placed to guide the unification process. “Successful vendors through this development will be those that provide cohesive, streamlined solutions, addressing the unified core requirements across the EU while flexing to meet a diversity of customer needs,” Cooke concludes.

These findings are from ABI Research’s Market Trends in PKI and Signing Solutions for eIDAS report. This report is part of the company’s Citizen Digital Identity research service, which includes research, data, and ABI Insights.